Ukraine vs. Russia: An “Enemy at the Gate” Conflict-Resolution Reading

The pundits at Fox News have been leaning toward the opinion that Russia will lose the Ukraine war. I haven’t done a reading on this since Biden thought he might be able to stare down Putin while the Russian saber-rattling was still going on. We all know how well that worked out. I used my “Enemy at the Gate” vulnerability spread since this is the sort of thing I intended it for, not the sporting events for which I normally invoke it. I did, however, persist in selecting the Chariot as the “Opportunity” card because one of its core meanings is “triumph in mundane affairs.” I placed Ukraine in the top row since they are technically the “home team” in this confrontation, with the Russians in the bottom row as the enemy invading their turf. My personal opinion is that this isn’t Afghanistan and Russia isn’t fighting a guerilla war, so in the long run I don’t see how they can lose at conventional warfare unless they forego their appetite for Soviet-era domination.

But let’s see what the cards say. I asked “Who will win in the Russia-Ukraine war?” and used the Retro Thoth deck for the main reading and the “quintessence” cards, with the RWS Centennial Edition (in a tin) for the “Opportunity” card. It’s notable that, although I randomized thoroughly for reversals, all of the cards appeared upright, suggesting that there are few hidden factors in the situation at this juncture.

Opponents’ Strengths:

In this column neither antagonist makes a strong showing. Ukraine got the 5 of Swords (“Defeat”) and Russia came up with the 5 of Cups (“Disappointment”). There are disadvantages on both sides of the conflict and neither one is in a commanding position. These cards definitely reflect the bitterness of the stand-off.

Score: nil, or undecided. (As I’ve said before, this scoring is only a convenient way to ascribe apparent superiority as shown by the cards.)

Opponents’ Weaknesses:

The Devil for the Ukrainians makes me think that, while they could succeed in “bedeviling” their tormentor with some creative maneuvering, there may be more “bark than bite” (that is, more show than substance) to their initiative. The Russians with the Prince of Disks seem a bit unprepared and disorganized. To date they have been unable to capitalize on their military supremacy in a way that spells convincing victory; however, pragmatic persistence seems to be their long suit. On the other hand, the Ukrainians may yet have something diabolically clever up their sleeves that will catch the Russians flat-footed.

Score: +1 to Ukraine because they are fielding a trump card to the Russians’ court card; however, there is no way of knowing at this stage how much of what is forthcoming is credible and how much is deluded fantasy.

Opponents’ Edge:

With the Star, the Ukrainians have the good will of the international community in their favor (for what it’s worth, the religious observer might say “God is on their side”), although direct intervention by any of their sympathizers would not be politically tenable. Tacit, indirect support seems more likely. The Russians, with the Ace of Disks, have singularity of purpose and consummate patience as their chief “edge” in the matter.

Score: +1 to the Ukraine for the reasons stated above, but the Russians may be able to outlast them.

Allies’ Power:

The Moon for the Ukrainians repeats the notion that their allies are working “behind the scenes” in cooperative harness rather than risking an escalated “international incident” through direct engagement. The reaction may seem bland but the waters run deep; if there are “hidden factors” in this affair they almost certainly reside here since the Devil is more about diversionary tactics. The Russians received the Princess of Swords, which looks like little more than “moral support” from their usual “client states.”

Score: +1 to the Ukrainians for bringing another trump card (their “ace in the hole”) into the fray against the Russians’ court card.

Chances to Win:

Once again, I looked at these “quintessence” cards in two ways: first by applying “Theosophical reduction” (summing and reducing the numerical values of the four preceding cards) to come up with a single composite trump card, and then by “casting out nines” (subtracting increments of nine from the total) to arrive at an intermediary “stopping point.”

In the first version, the Ukrainians got the Wheel of Fortune (5+15+17+18=55; 5+5=10), most likely meaning that their fate is in flux at present (although Aleister Crowley did say this card usually signifies improving fortune). Plus, as Crowley also noted, it corresponds to Jupiter, the “Greater Benefic” in astrology, so all is not bleak in the forecast. The Russians received Lust, the traditional “Strength” card (5+12+1+11=29; 2+9=11), which speaks to their ambitions in this matter; subduing the rampaging Beast may be easier said than done.

Score: nil, or undecided, at least until the direction of the Ukrainians’ fortunes becomes plain. For their part, the Russians’ path seems to be one of strong-arm “manifest destiny” rather than “serendipity.”

In the second version, the Ukrainians came up with the Sun (55–36 — subtracting four “nines” — yields 19), one of the most favorable cards in the deck; the Russians got the Aeon, or Judgement (29–9=20), denoting a “reckoning.” Either the Russians will be sent packing or they will ramp up their aggression to an irresistible level, international outcry notwithstanding.

Score: +1 to the Ukraine because there is no gainsaying that radiant Sun.

The Decision:

The Grand Quintessence card for this array is the Universe (either 10+11=21 or 19+20=39; 39–18 — subtracting two “nines” — equals 21); this is a card of emphatic material success, although since it corresponds to Saturn that success will almost certainly be tardy in arriving. Someone is going to win here eventually, and the Earth element of the Universe is more at odds with the cards in the Ukraine’s row (the two Air cards are hostile to it and suggest fruitless talk more than productive action) than with the single Air card in Russia’s row.

Score: +2 to Russia, but not by much, and I’m wondering whether the two lower-tier “people” (court) cards in Russia’s row might be showing a “weak link” in their strategy. Similarly, the preponderance of trump cards in the Ukraine’s row could mean either pronounced success or exaggerated failure, with little incentive or opportunity for compromise.

Scoring Summary:

The raw scoring came out 4-to-2 (with one “tie score”) in favor of the Ukrainians in one scenario, and 3-to-2 (with two “ties”) in their favor in the alternate version. If the tarot is serving up the truth here and the Russians don’t pull out all the stops, the pundits may just be right.

Originally published at http://parsifalswheeldivination.wordpress.com on February 11, 2023.