NFL Football Forecast: 2025 NFC Championship — Washington at Philadelphia
UPDATE: Well, this one certainly missed the mark except for the fact that it got the winner right (although the odds-makers already told us that). The Eagles reeled off three unanswered touchdowns in the 4th Quarter, without which the final would have been 34–23, much closer to one of the the predicted outcomes of 31–24. The scoring model still needs some work; perhaps I should have applied the “multiplier” method I devised a couple of years ago since NFL championship games seem to routinely become higher-scoring affairs. I’ll take that into consideration for my Super Bowl forecast.
AUTHOR’S NOTE: Here is another timely “supplemental” post for NFL fans. It is a companion reading for the AFC Championship forecast I posted yesterday. The Philadelphia Eagles are the “home team,” so they occupy the top row of the spread, while the Washington Commanders are the visitors.
The most interesting thing here in a general sense is that the 11-to-14 point lead amassed over the first two quarters seems like it might hold up for the whole game as the adversaries exchange touchdowns and field goals with neither one breaking the game open after that early surge. Philadelphia has slightly better cards until the 4th Quarter, when things start to unravel for them as their offensive line loses its mojo.
In the “Strength” department, both teams enter the game with high morale, but it looks like Washington — with the game-changing Aeon (aka Judgement) — is smelling another upset and a Super Bowl appearance while the Eagles don’t seem to be too nervous about it. At the end of the 1st Quarter, the team that is leading should be ahead by nearly two touchdowns.
In the “Weakness” category, the 5 of Wands suggests that Washington might succumb to a case of the “jitters” while Philadelphia is perfectly poised, if a bit overconfident about it. By halftime the scoring gap may increase by a field goal to 14 points but no more.
Third-quarter dynamics are evenly matched when it comes to which team has the “Edge.” If the Eagles are ahead they will be riding their advantage for all its worth with stout defensive play, while Washington’s offense will be probing for further incremental improvement. The scoring trajectory appears to be flat, with neither team gaining the upper hand.
“Allies’ Strength” is intended to show the potency of each team’s offensive line in creating openings for the rushing game and powering up the passing game. With the 9 of Disks (Gain), Washington stands to come into their own on the ground, while the Eagles with the 8 of Cups (Indolence) seem to lose the handle on quarterback protection. But there doesn’t appear to be any significant shift in point spread by the end of the game.
Elementally, the Commandeers’ series is slightly more active and assertive but the Eagle’s “Strength” and “Edge” cards are more in tune with the “Decision” card, intimating the aforementioned “surge” that could carry them to victory. It’s also noteworthy that, even though they are at odds elementally, Death and the Emperor are “numerological counterparts” because 13=1+3=4, giving the Eagles an “inside track” on its interdicting potential.
In the “Chance to Win” column, the Eagles have a strong “champion” in the Emperor, while the Hermit for the Commanders implies that their quarterback will be left unprotected once too often, resulting in offensive miscues from which it will be hard to recover.
Death, the “Decision” card, would have meant a sudden-death overtime in past seasons before the overtime rules changed, but now I’m assuming that, if Washington can get its ground game revved up in the 4th Quarter, it could spell the end for the Eagle’s fragile superiority and push the game into standard overtime. In that case the winner would be decided by a single touchdown or field goal.
In summary, I think the Eagles will have just enough on the ball to maintain their favored status and pull off the win, but not by much. If I were to predict a final score, it would be 24-to-14 without overtime, and 31-to-24 or 27-to-24 with an overtime period.
Originally published at http://parsifalswheeldivination.org on January 26, 2025.
